Russia's Oil Shipments from Western Ports Likely to Remain Near Record Levels in October, Sources Indicate

Moscow, Oct 10 (Reuters) - Oil shipments and transit activities from Russia’s western ports are anticipated to remain close to the record highs seen in September this October, driven by heightened refinery operations, according to industry insiders and Reuters calculations.

Exports of Urals, Siberian Light, and KEBCO varieties from the Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Novorossiysk ports may dip by approximately 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) compared to the previous month, settling around 2.3 million bpd based on average projections and information from industry sources.

The increase in Russia’s OPEC+ quota and ongoing maintenance work at refineries bolster strong export figures, even as domestic processing is expected to rise. Russia's OPEC+ production limit for October has increased by 93,000 bpd from September, reaching 9.457 million bpd.

Record refinery outages in August and September drove last month's exports to an unprecedented 2.5 million bpd, while the idle refining capacity in October is projected to decrease below August levels, supporting higher domestic throughput, sources noted.

However, drone strikes on refineries — such as the incident at Kirishinefteorgsintez on October 4 — may necessitate adjustments to export strategies, while attacks on pipeline infrastructure could restrict export capabilities.

Russia has been gradually augmenting its oil production and was nearly on track last month to fulfill the output quota established by the OPEC+ coalition of major oil producers, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated on Wednesday, as reported by Interfax.

(Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Susan Fenton)